Exactly where we will stand in the long war against disease by the year 2050 is impossible to say. (61) But if developments in research maintain their current pace, it seems likely that a combination of improved attention to dietary and environmental factors, along with advances in gene therapy and protein targeted drugs, will have virtually eliminated most major classes of disease. From an economic standpoint, the best news may be that these accomplishments could be accompanied by a drop in health-care costs. (62) Costs may even fall as diseases are brought under control using pinpointed, short term therapies now being developed. By 2050 there will be fewer hospitals, and surgical procedures will be largely restricted to the treat ment of accidents and other forms of trauma(外伤). Spending on nonacute(慢性病的) care, both in nursing facilities and in homes, will also fall sharply as more elderly people lead healthy lives until close to death. One result of medicine’s success in controlling disease will be a dramatic increase in life expectancy. (63) The extent of that increase is a highly speculative matter, but it is worth noting that medical science has already helped to make the very old (currently defined as those over 85 years of age) the fastest growing segment of the population. Between 1960 and 1995, the U.S. population as a whole increased by about 45%, while the segment over 85 years of age grew by almost 300%. (64) There has been a similar explosion in the population of centenarians, with the result that survival to the age of 100 is no longer the newsworthy feat that it was only a few decades ago. U.S. Census Bureau projections already forecast dramatic increase in the number of centenarians in the next 50 years: 4 million in 2050, compared with 37,000 in 1990. (65) Although Census Bureau calculations project an increase in average life span of only eight years by the year 2050, some experts believe that the human life span should not begin to encounter any theoretical natural limits before 120 years.With continuing advances in molecular medicine and a growing understanding of the aging process, that limit could rise to 130 years or more.
The extent of that increase is a highly speculative matter, but it is worth noting that medical science has already helped to make the very old (currently defined as those over 85 years of age) the fastest growing segment of the population.延伸阅读
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There are two factors which determine an individual’s intelligence. The first is the sort of brain he is born with. Human brains differ considerably, some being more capable than others. But no matter how good a brain he has to begin with, an individual will have a low order of intelligence unless he has opportunities to learn. So the second factor is what happens to the individual—the sort of environment in which he is reared. If an individual is handicapped environmentally, it is likely that his brain will fail to develop and he will never attain the level of intelligence of which he is capable. The importance of environment in determining an individual’s intelligence can be demonstrated by the case history of the identical twins, Peter and Mark. Being identical, the twins had identical brains at birth, and their growth processes were the same. When the twins were three months old, their parents died, and they were placed in separate foster homes. Peter was reared by parents of low intelligence in an isolated community with poor education al opportunities. Mark was reared in the home of well to-do parents who had been to college. He was read to as a child, sent to good schools, and given every opportunity to be stimulated intellectually. This environmental difference continued until the twins were in their late teens, when they were given tests to measure their intelligence. Mark’s I.Q. was 125, twenty-five points higher than the average and fully forty points higher than his identical brother. Given equal opportunities, the twins, having identical brains, would have tested at roughly the same level.
The best statement of the main idea of the passage is that (). A.human brains differ considerably
B.the brain a person is born with is important in determining his intelligence
C.environment is crucial in determining a person’s intelligence
D.persons having identical brains will have roughly the same intelligence
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